Bitcoin’s Poor Start to Bullish October Continues, but There May Be Cheer Ahead for Bulls

Bitcoin’s (BTC) poor start to its historically most bullish month since 2013 continued as the asset briefly slid under $60,000 late Thursday, before recovering, causing over $144 million in bullish crypto bets liquidated.

BTC traded just over $61,300 to remain flat over the past 24 hours despite a volatile U.S. trading session. Ether (ETH), BNB Chain’s BNB and XRP (XRP) showed losses up to 2%, while memecoin dogecoin (DOGE) was up 2% on no immediate catalyst.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, which measures the largest tokens by market capitalization, was down 1%.

Bitcoin is down over 6% since the start of October, data shows, a month that has only twice ended in the red since 2013 - chalking gains of as high as 60% and an average of 22% to make it the most best for investor returns. That has dented social sentiment on X, with some users being bearish about price recovery.

Polymarket bettors have mixed opinions on where BTC’s price will move in October. While they have ruled out an attempt at $70,000, bettors are more confident that bitcoin will be range bound between $57.5K and $65K.

However, CoinGlass data shows that most gains appear in the latter part of the month, while the first week is generally bearish - meaning current price action still remains in line with historical movements.

The second and third days of October have ended in green just six times since 2013, before recovering in the second week and large movements generally in the third week. Price jumps of as high as 16% generally appear after October 15.

That’s just the data, though. Fundamental and macroeconomic factors ultimately weigh on trading sentiment for risk assets, such as bitcoin – and tensions in the Middle East have shifted investor interest to oil and gold.

Global benchmark Brent oil had its most significant one-day jump in almost a year and is on track for an 8% weekly gain since early 2023.

Looking at macroeconomics for a moment, markets were shook earlier this month by geopolitical tension in the middle east. Bettors on Polymarket are giving a 63% chance that Israel will strike Iranian oil facilities in October, but only a 35% chance that they will hit Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The U.S. presidential election is looking as close as ever on Polymarket, with the two candidates either briefly tying the race or fighting over a 1 percentage point lead.

Donald Trump-themed TREMP, a Solana meme coin named after the Republican candidate, is up 14%, while the original MAGA Trump token is flat, according to CoinGecko data. The Kamala Harris-themed KAMA token is down 7.5%.