Bitcoin mirrors 2015-2018 cycle – Is another bull run coming soon?

While price growth has slowed down, key indicators have revealed the market is maturing. With rising institutional interest and a potentially new euphoria phase, this could signal a new phase of expansion.

Realized cap – A sign of a maturing market?

The hike in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap offers some important insights into the market’s evolution too.

During the 2011-2015 cycle, realized capital surged by approximately 122x, fueled by Bitcoin’s early exponential adoption. However, as the market matured, growth ratios have steadily declined in subsequent cycles – A sign of Bitcoin’s transition to a more capital-intensive and structurally mature market.

Source: Glassnode

In the current cycle, Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x so far – Well below the 5.7x peak of the previous cycle. This growth mirrors the patterns seen in the 2015-2018 cycle, with sharp hikes expected as the market enters its euphoric phase.

While Bitcoin’s size today demands significantly more capital to drive similar growth, the sustained acceleration of realized capital could point to potential for market expansion.

Closer look at sell-side pressure and investor behavior

By tracking the long-term to short-term holder supply ratio, we can gauge whether the market is in an accumulation or distribution phase.

A rising ratio means that more coins are being held, indicating a dominance of HODLing behavior. On the contrary, a decline shows active selling by long-term holders.

Source: Glassnode

In the 2023–2025 cycle, we’ve seen two significant waves of distribution, similar to those in early 2021 and late 2017. These distribution phases were followed by price rallies, demonstrating that reduced sell-side pressure can enable sustained bullish momentum – At least until demand exhaustion sets in.

Bull market and euphoria phase

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s move into the euphoria phase may be driven by market structure changes, not just a supply shock. Since July 2024, exchange balances dropped from 3.1M BTC to 2.7M BTC.

While some see this as individual withdrawals, most of the decline has been due to coins moving into institutional custodial wallets – Mainly from Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

Source: Glassnode